A short-term FOMC scenario map: prepare before predicting
Separate the decision, communication and market response when assessing a policy event.
Predicting a decision is different from predicting its price impact
A correct forecast of a policy decision does not guarantee a correct market call. If the view was already widespread, the decision itself may add little information. Separate the expected outcome from an assessment of what prices already reflect. Without evidence for that second assessment, describe it as an assumption rather than a fact about positioning.
This framework is for organizing a short-term research note. It is not a claim that an event can be traded profitably by following three mechanical rules.
Keep the information stages distinct
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC page provides statements and related materials. Record the policy action, wording and press-conference explanation separately. When economic projections are published, treat them as another information set. A different impression from the later explanation can help account for a reversal after the initial move.
Readers in different countries should verify the official time and their own time-zone conversion. The difference between US and Japanese time changes with US daylight saving. Do not rely on a memorized local time from an older article.
Build conditional scenarios, not three price arrows
The first scenario might be a more restrictive message accompanied by a higher expected path for short-term rates. The second might involve little new information, leaving another market influence dominant. A third might combine a more accommodative message with greater concern about growth. That last case prevents a simple equation of easier policy with higher crypto prices.
Attach an observation and a rejection condition to each scenario. If the mechanism relies on rates, inspect Treasury yields. Do not cite a crypto decline as confirmation while ignoring yields moving against the hypothesis. Define the horizon in advance: the first few minutes and the next several days are different research questions.
Preserve a plan that allows for error
Consider the possibility of slippage and wider price differences around the release. An analysis should not assume that every displayed price was executable at the desired size. This is a distinction between a chart-based return and a realizable transaction, rather than a recommendation for a particular order type.
In the review, record both the initial reaction and the movement after subsequent communication. Classify errors under policy interpretation, prior expectations or trading conditions. That makes the exercise useful even when the directional call was wrong. Conversely, one correct call should not turn a conditional explanation into a permanent law. The value of the scenario map is its audit trail: a reader can see what was assumed, what changed and why the conclusion was updated.
Sources and verification
This educational analysis explains a decision framework. Numerical examples are hypothetical, not current market readings or price forecasts.